Takeda revises FY2025 forecast, lowers profit expectations amid pipeline changes

Takeda announced a revised full-year consolidated forecast for FY2025 (ending March 31, 2026), with revenue now expected to be JPY 4,500.0 bn, a JPY 30.0 bn decrease from the original forecast. This revision primarily reflects a recalibrated forecast for ENTYVIO and a greater decline in U.S. VYVANSE sales due to generic erosion, partially offset by favorable foreign exchange rate assumptions. Operating profit is projected to decrease by JPY 75.0 bn, or 15.8%, to JPY 400.0 bn, impacted by an unfavorable product mix and increased impairment losses on intangible assets related to strategic pipeline decisions.

Net profit attributable to owners of the company is expected to be JPY 153.0 bn, a JPY 75.0 bn decrease from the original forecast, resulting in reported EPS of JPY 97.14. Despite the decline in profit before tax to JPY 243.0 bn, tax expense is anticipated to remain similar to the original forecast due to non-deductible expenses from impairments and derecognition of deferred tax assets, leading to an effective tax rate of approximately 37%.

Concurrently, Takeda's management guidance for FY2025 at constant exchange rate (CER) has been revised. While Core Revenue is still expected to be "Broadly Flat," Core Operating Profit and Core EPS are now projected to experience a "Low-single-digit % decline." The interim dividend for FY2025 remains at JPY 100 per share, maintaining the annual dividend projection of JPY 200 per share.