Treasury Wine Estates cuts outlook, scraps buyback amid market weakness

Treasury Wine Estates Limited has revised its 1H26 EBITS expectation to a range of $225m to $235m, with 2H26 EBITS anticipated to be higher, excluding any potential settlement. This adjustment reflects weakened market conditions in the US and China, leading to moderated depletion growth expectations and customer inventory holdings above optimal levels. TWE plans to reduce China distributor inventory by approximately 0.4m cases ($215m NSR value) and restrict shipments contributing to parallel import activity. US tariffs are expected to impact Treasury Collective's EBITS by approximately $10m.

The company has initiated TWE Ascent, a company-wide transformation program targeting $100m per annum in cost improvement, with initial benefits in F27 and full realization over two to three years. Leverage is expected to reach 2.5x at 1H26, exceeding the 1.5-2.0x target range for about two years. Consequently, TWE has canceled its on-market share buyback of up to $200m in F26, of which AUD 30,461,681.72 had been completed.

State Street Corporation has increased its substantial holding in TWE, with its voting power rising from 9.63% to 10.65% as of December 11, 2025. This change involved various transactions, including stock lending and borrowing, and collateral movements, reflecting adjustments in its portfolio management strategies related to TWE shares.