Infratil projects renewables to reach 10 GW, $700m EBITDA by 2028

Infratil Limited today published materials from its North American renewables valuation workshop, detailing approaches to valuing its renewable energy portfolio, which includes an Operating Company (Opco) and a Development Company (Devco). The company projects its Opco to reach 10 GW and generate approximately $700 million in Run-Rate EBITDA by 2028, up from 5.5 GW and $380 million in 2025.

The materials also outline a $2 billion annual capital expenditure program funded through a combination of tax credits monetized via tax equity, debt, and equity. Net debt is projected to increase from $3.1 billion in 2025 to $5.1 billion in 2028, while net debt per kW is expected to deleverage from $573/kW to $514/kW over the same period.

Valuation examples presented include a consolidated EV/EBITDA of $9.1 billion by 2028, based on a 13.0x multiple and $700 million Opco Run-Rate EBITDA. Alternatively, a sum-of-the-parts valuation for 2025 estimates a $5.0 billion enterprise value, comprising a $1.9 billion standalone Opco value and a $1.7 billion standalone Devco value. Pre-money equity value is consistently estimated at $3.6 billion across various 2025 valuation scenarios.