James Hardie addresses market expectations and FY26 guidance variance

James Hardie stated that its Q1 FY26 statutory and underlying earnings did not materially differ from market expectations, despite a 12.4% variance in adjusted EBITDA and NPAT from consensus forecasts. The company considered a downward trend in North American single-family new construction and repair markets, as well as the AZEK transaction, in its assessment. John Burns Research and Consulting's forecast for single-family housing starts declined from 3% in 2025 to 14% (pre-Q1 FY26 earnings).

The company acknowledged that the variation in its FY26 guidance, factoring in the AZEK acquisition and segment reporting changes, could be considered material by a reasonable person. Net sales for siding & trim are now forecast between $2.675 bn and $2.850 bn, and total adjusted EBITDA between $1.05 bn and $1.15 bn. This updated guidance reflected a 13-16% downward revision from May guidance, primarily due to lower expectations for the remaining three quarters of FY26.

JHX became aware of the FY26 guidance variation after board approval on August 20, 2025, prior to the market open. The company affirmed its compliance with Listing Rule 3.1.