Veidekke forecasts Scandinavian market recovery from 2026 after two challenging years

Veidekke expects the Scandinavian contracting market to stabilize and grow from 2026, following an 11% decline in 2024 and a projected 4% fall in 2025. This downturn is attributed to 2022-2023 interest rate hikes and high inflation, with impacts typically materializing one to two years later. However, building-start statistics now show a clear, positive trend, intensifying expectations of a market turnaround.

Moderate growth of 5% in 2026 and 4% in 2027 is anticipated across all segments, with particularly strong performance in apartments and small houses, while infrastructure is expected to remain stable. The market decline is projected to be approximately 50% recovered by the end of 2026.

According to the Autumn Market 2025 update, key inflation drivers such as energy and currency remain stable. Construction cost inflation in September 2025 was 4.2% in Norway and 2.6% in Sweden, with Veidekke forecasting it to stay within the 1.5%-4.0% range until 2026. High wage growth is noted as the most significant driver.