Infratil's Longroad energy targets significant growth, $700m EBITDA by 2028

Infratil's Longroad Energy Holdings, LLC, held a renewables valuation workshop detailing its growth projections and financial strategies. The company aims to increase its operating company (Opco) capacity from 5.5 GW in 2025 to 10.0 GW by 2028. This expansion is projected to boost Opco Run-Rate EBITDA from approximately $380 million in 2025 to roughly $700 million by 2028.

To support this growth, Longroad Energy plans an annual Capex program of approximately $2 billion. This capital expenditure will be funded through a combination of tax credits monetized via tax equity (around $1 billion per year), debt (approximately $850 million per year), and equity (roughly $150 million per year). The company projects its consolidated net debt to rise from $3.1 billion in 2025 to $5.1 billion by 2028, but expects to deleverage on a per-unit basis, with net debt per kW decreasing from $573/kW to $514/kW over the same period.

Valuation examples presented three options, all resulting in a pre-money equity value of $3.6 billion. These included consolidated EV/EBITDA models for both 2025 and 2028, and a sum-of-the-parts valuation for 2025, which highlighted a standalone Opco value of $1.9 billion and a standalone Devco value of $1.7 billion.