Moody's upgrades JSW Steel outlook to positive on growth, stronger earnings

Moody's Ratings on October 1, 2025, affirmed JSW Steel Limited's Ba1 Corporate Family Rating (CFR) and Ba1 senior unsecured ratings, as well as Ba1 ratings for Periama Holdings LLC's and Jefferson County Port Authority's guaranteed senior unsecured notes. The key change is the outlook revision from 'stable' to 'positive', reflecting the company's expanded operating scale and anticipated credit metric improvements.

The outlook upgrade is attributed to JSW Steel's production capacity growth, which increased by approximately 20% over the last 15 months to 35.7m tonnes per annum (mtpa), with further expansion planned by 2028. This growth is expected to drive higher earnings, with forecasts of INR300bn in fiscal 2025-26 and INR350bn in fiscal 2026-27, up from INR223bn in fiscal 2024-25.

JSW Steel's steel sales are projected to reach 28.5m tonnes in fiscal 2025-26 and close to 32m tonnes in fiscal 2026-27. The company's EBITDA per tonne is expected to be around INR10,500-10,750, supported by lower raw material costs and reduced import competition in India and the US, including a 12% safeguard duty on certain steel imports.